a little on tilt right now

i'm taking a break today for awhile, because i'm tilting a bit, and its never good to play while tilting. when i get done updating the blog, ill make some lunch and watch a little tv or something before i play a few more games and then go to softball tonight.

here's why im tilting... just played against a guy who employs the theory that once you have 200 in the pot in the big blind, its ok to call the rest of your 2500 chips off with any two cards -(like T6 off suit) cuz hey, they might win. and hes right they might and they did several times against me when i had the best hand going in. very hard to play that type of player because no matter how tight you play if they aren't using any kind of logic and are relying on luck, then you are basically relying on luck too. all you can do is get it in ahead and trust that eventually variance will eat away at this guys bankroll. still very frustrating tho. AAARRRGGGGGGHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

ok. that's out of the system.

had a great conversation with a friend of mine who also plays poker, about the how to determine when to move up in game size. there is a formula called the kelly criterion that basically says you need to have an roi of at least 10% at the level you are currently playing and build your bankroll up to 36x the buy in of the next level up. if you do that, your risk of ruin (i.e. going broke) is around 10%. any time risk of ruin is low then your bankroll is at a lot less risk. there are more rules about when to move back down and i need to look into that part a little to better understand, but seems good.

i had some nebulous goals in mind as ive been thinking about how to know when its time to move up, but this was great for helping me bring some clarity and definition to the goals. so... ive set up the old trusty spreadsheet to track roi and bankroll 4 me. those that really know me, know how much i love spreadsheets (i really do!!) so this is a fun project 4 me. this will help guide me up through the ranks until i get to the level that will allow me to pay the bills etc... i am already tracking all games i play, but this will be in a different format. pretty exciting stuff for a dork like me.

he also suggested that i move over from the 9/10 person tables and focus on the 6 person tables. his theory is that even tho they both pay 30% of the entrants, there are fewer players to beat in the 6 person. im going to give it a try, but i think the players in the 9/10 are less experienced and easier to beat, so i am going to play and track both and see where my margin is better.

lastly - for you poker theory fiends here's a good one for you. i was watching a friend play a tourney and she was on the bubble for making the money, and second or third in chip stack size with the player who is 4th in chips only having about 480 and blinds were 100/200. she looks down at pocket jj in the small blind. the chip leader who is splashing a little, but not a lot, makes a decent size raise from the cut off which accounts for about half of her chips. smaller chips stack folded from the button.

Q1 - do you shove the rest of your chips in over the top, do you smooth call and see a flop OR do you fold the JJ since you are on the bubble for the money and wait until the small chip stack gets knocked out since you are at risk here?

Q2 - would your answer change if the third place money were $100,000 instead of $6?

well my friend pushed and the chip leader had KK and took her out in 4th and the short stack made the money. several of us had this discussion most of last night. theoretically it could be right to fold them there, but we all decided that we weren't quite good enough players yet since the chip leader could be raising with a lot there, we would rather try and get it in good and double up and most of the time he isn't going to have AA,KK or QQ. on the other hand, most of the time he will have at least 1 over card and there is a 30% chance that it will hit the board and take you out anyway... so what do you guys think?

love to hear your thoughts on this.
til next time -
peace and love and happiness to all
kk